Pasadena Chamber of Commerce

The New York Times reports leading economic indicators are trending positive, indicating a possible end to the recession is in sight.

Index of Leading Indicators Is Signaling the Recession’s End

By FLOYD NORRIS

THE American recession appears to be nearing an end, but only after it has become the deepest downturn in more than half a century.

The index of leading indicators, which signals turning points in the economy, is rising at a rate that has accurately indicated the end of every recession since the index began to be compiled in 1959.

The index was reported this week to have risen for the third consecutive month in June, and to have risen at a 12.8 percent annual rate over those three months. Such a rise, pointed out Harm Bandholz, an economist with UniCredit Group, “has always marked the end of the contraction.”

Mr. Bandholz said he expected that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of American economic cycles, would eventually conclude that the recession bottomed out in August or September of this year.

If that proves to be accurate, the recession that began in December 2007 will have lasted 21 or 22 months, making it the longest downturn since the Great Depression.

Hopeful news, though tempered by information from the past couple of weeks and reported with the understanding that the figures are likely to be revised in the next few weeks as data is examined more fully.

Paul