Cases: The Pasadena Public Health Department reported 20 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, October 27th and no new fatalities. 99.9% of Pasadena residents have had at least one vaccination. 93.3% are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. LA County reported 1,187 new cases and 13 deaths from COVID-19 on October 27th. 390 people are hospitalized as a result of COVID-19 in the county. 15,964 new cases were reported in California on Thursday and 148 deaths.
Triple Threat: This winter, the U.S. could be in for a “tripledemic,” a nasty collision of three viruses — the flu, the coronavirus and respiratory syncytial virus (R.S.V.) — which could cause a surge of patients seeking treatment at hospitals that are already stretched thin.
At the moment the rates are low, but we know that a winter wave is coming. Many European countries already are having waves and we generally tend to follow them. There’s almost no doubt that we will see something, it’s just a matter of how big it will be.
At the moment, it looks like the two variants that we probably need to worry about the most are BQ.1.1 and XBB, both of which are variations of Omicron, and both seem able to get around immunity pretty well, at least in terms of infection.
What to do? Get vaccinated. There’s a good vaccine for flu, and there is an OK vaccine for Covid in terms of the new variants, and it will give you some protection. Wear a mask if you are able. Wash your hands often and do not go to work or to school if you are sick.
At an individual level, especially if you are relatively healthy, none of those viruses is a big threat to you necessarily, but it is a threat to our health care system, which is already so stretched. And it is a threat to children and pregnant women and older people who may end up in the hospital. If they get really sick, they may not be able to get care because the hospitals are already full.
Fall 2022 COVID-19 boosters are now available in LA County. What is the difference? The updated boosters are "bivalent", meaning they protect against the original coronavirus strain and newer Omicron strains. Who is eligible? Everyone aged 12+ at least 2 months after any COVID-19 vaccine or booster dose. To find a location near you, visit VaccinateLACounty.com. The informational flyer is available in English and Spanish. LADPH_Updated_Booster_Posters_Eng_Span.pdf
Other pertinent information and resources can be found on the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health website at http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/
The Economy: The US economy rebounded in the third quarter after contracting for the first six months of this year, as a narrowing trade deficit concealed weakening consumer demand.
Economic data on Friday brought troubling news for Federal Reserve officials who are trying to rein in the fastest inflation in decades: Prices are still rising quickly. Wages are rising rapidly too. And the strong consumer demand that is helping to fuel the inflationary fire shows little sign of letting up.
The data, from two separate government reports, wasn’t a surprise, and included hints of progress. But it was confirmation of the challenges facing policymakers, and further evidence that their aggressive efforts to constrain the economy are taking time to have a significant effect.
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, climbed by 6.2 percent in the year through September, in line with the increase the month before, the Commerce Department said Friday. After stripping out food and fuel, which can be volatile from month to month, prices increased by 5.1 percent over the past year, a brisker increase than the 4.9 percent in the year through August.
Both of those inflation measures are rising faster than the 2 percent rate that the Fed targets on average and over time.
Mortgage rates barreled past the 7 percent mark on Thursday to their highest level since 2002, as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increases, meant to combat inflation, continued to seep through the economy and weigh increasingly on the housing market.
Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages — the most popular kind among home buyers in the United States — rose to 7.08 percent, up from 6.94 percent last week and 3.14 percent from this time last year, according to the latest weekly survey by Freddie Mac. Rates had already surpassed 7 percent, according to other trackers, but this is the first time that the closely watched Freddie Mac survey surpassed that level in two decades.
From the LA Times-Loan rates cool the housing market-Home purchase is even more unaffordable and stands to further slow a market already reeling from the rising borrowing costs.
For much of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies held mortgage interest rates below 3% and enabled people to make larger and larger offers. Southern California home prices rose nearly 40% in two years. Pandemic boomtowns such as Boise, Idaho, and Phoenix saw larger gains.
But this year, inflation and the central bank’s efforts to tame it have caused rates to more than double.
With rates rising so quickly, buyers have had to try to buy homes with values set when money was cheap. Many can’t.
Home sales are plunging across the country and, in some markets, prices are falling but nowhere near fast enough to balance out the rising interest rates.
In Southern California, prices are now nearly 6% off their peak in May, according to Zillow.
In Los Angeles County, the typical home value, which Zillow defines as the average of the middle third of the market, was $835,546 in September, 6.7% below the peak.
On Thursday, mortgage firm Freddie Mac reported that the average cost on a 30-year fixed-rate home loan was 7.08% this week, up from 6.94% last week and 3.14% a year earlier.
If rates hold above 7%, economists said it’s likely to send prices down more than if they held in the 6% range, because most Americans need a mortgage to become homeowners.
An increase from 6% to 7.08% adds $475 to the monthly mortgage payment on a $835,546 house, assuming a borrower put 20% down. Compared with the 3.14% rate of last year, the increase to above 7% adds an additional $1,614 monthly.
Many experts don’t predict a housing crash similar to the one that occurred during the Great Recession, in large part because of tighter lending standards. But some analysts say home prices could still decline by double-digit percentages from the peak.
The European Central Bank has raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points to their highest level since 2009. The move, announced after the ECB governing council met in Frankfurt on Thursday, was in line with market expectations and showed rate-setters were not yet ready to slow the pace of monetary tightening despite mounting political criticism.
The Center for Jobs and the Economy has released our full analysis of the September Employment Report from the California Employment Development Department. It showed that employment in California remains 189,700 below pre-covid level.
EDD reported that employment (seasonally adjusted; September preliminary) fell for the second month in a row, down 20,100 from the revised numbers for August. The number of unemployed rose 37,600.
The reported unemployment rate dropped 0.2 point to 3.9%, the lowest in the current data series. Rather than representing an improvement in labor conditions, however, change in the rate was primarily the result of a drop in the total labor force. California had the 15th highest unemployment rate among the states, and contained 13.0% of the total number of unemployed workers in the US.
In the national numbers, total US employment was up 204,000, and the number of unemployed dropped by 261,000. With the labor force largely unchanged, the reported unemployment rate dropped 0.2 point to 3.5%, matching the rate recorded in February 2020.
Rail strike fears prompt businesses to seek U.S. intervention-Businesses are increasingly worried about the renewed threat of a railroad strike after two unions rejected their deals, and they want the Biden administration and Congress to be ready to intervene.
A coalition of 322 business groups from a variety of industries signed off on a letter to President Biden on Thursday urging him to make sure the deals he helped broker last month get approved because a railroad strike would have dire consequences for the economy. All 12 rail unions must approve their agreements to prevent a strike next month.
Biden has been watching the contract dispute closely and appointed a special board of arbitrators this summer to try to help resolve it, but the White House hasn’t said whether he will get personally involved again.
The railroads have offered 24% raises and $5,000 in bonuses in the five-year deal, which would be the biggest increases in more than four decades, but the negotiations hinge on quality-of-life concerns. The unions that represent the conductors and engineers who drive the trains want the railroads to ease the punishing schedules that they say keep them on call 24/7, and the other unions want the railroads to add paid sick time.
A strike isn’t imminent because the two unions that voted down their deals agreed to retry negotiations before considering a walkout, but the railroads face a Nov. 19 deadline with one of those unions. Six smaller unions have approved their deals while four others are set to vote over the next month, including the two biggest ones, whose engineers and conductors have the most quality-of-life concerns.
The head of the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division union that rejected its agreement earlier this month said that if the railroads won’t consider adding sick time, he has no choice but to prepare for a strike next month.