Economic Update for September 18, 2023-Recession Fears Abate, Unemployment, COVID and More

COVID Vaccines: From the LA Times: Health officials are recommending most everyone get an updated vaccine. But are people willing to roll up their sleeves again? By Rong-Gong Lin II

A new coronavirus shot will be available starting this week, but the big question is how many people will get one.
Attitudes about COVID- 19 are clearly shifting, as is to be expected since it long ceased to be the sort of suffocating public health threat that ground the globe to a halt .

But health officials note that vaccines are a major driver of that progress, and continued inoculations — much like a typical flu shot — can help keep the coronavirus confined.

It’s clear that vaccines, once so desired that hopefuls endured hours-long waits or even hit the road in hopes of securing the shots, have become a harder sell as the pandemic eased and people moved on with their lives. Deaths and serious illnesses are down.

Today, most people who have never been vaccinated no longer need to get a two-dose primary series to be considered inoculated. Now, an unvaccinated person who is at least 5 years old needs to get only one shot to be considered current on their vaccination.

Only unvaccinated babies and young children, ages 6 months to 4 years, will need two doses of the updated Moderna vaccine or three doses of the updated offering from Pfizer-BioNTech.

Among those who didn’t get last year’s updated COVID-19 shot, the possibility of unknown serious side effects was cited as a key reason.

The CDC says the COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective. More than 670 million doses had been administered through March 1, the CDC said , “under the most intense safety monitoring in U.S. history.”

So far this calendar year, about 25,000 people ages 65 and up have died from COVID-19, as have about 2,800 adults between the ages of 45 and 64, and about 450 people ages 20 to 44, according to the CDC. There have been 36 deaths among those ages 5 through 19; 18 deaths among those ages 1 to 4; and 26 deaths among those younger than 1.

Even people with no underlying health conditions can still die from COVID-19.

New analysis of recent COVID-19 data confirm that “there are deaths, including in children, including in those without chronic conditions,” said Dr. Matthew Daley, a pediatrician and research expert in vaccines who is also a member of the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. “And my perception is that those deaths are vaccine preventable.”

Most people who are dying from COVID-19 are not current on their vaccinations.

Vaccine distribution refinements should make administering vaccinations easier. There will be smaller minimum order quantities and single doses in vials. This “is likely to reduce wastage, eases logistics and helps with storage capacity limitations,” Wallace said.

Flu, COVID-19, RSV: When to get vaccines-A number of factors can affect the timing, experts say, but don’t put them off too long. By Rong-Gong Lin II

A fresh round of flu and COVID-19 vaccines are rolling out to pharmacies, doctor’s offices and clinics across California and the country. But when’s the best time to get your shots?

Along with the annual batch of flu shots, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now recommends that everyone age 6 months and up get a newly updated COVID-19 vaccination. Both vaccines are specifically formulated to protect against particular viral strains that officials determined will be prevalent this fall and winter. It’s not just a booster. It’s really an updated vaccine,” Dr. David Bronstein, pediatrician and infectious disease specialist with Kaiser Permanente Southern California, said of the new COVID-19 vaccine. 

The CDC suggests getting the flu shot sometime in September or October. But even if you miss that window, it’s still important to get it, the agency says.

The CDC doesn’t have a specific recommended timeframe for getting the latest COVID-19 vaccination, but had endorsed the vaccinations for virtually everyone heading into the fall and winter — when coronavirus transmission has typically risen nationwide, as has happened in recent weeks.

Most people will not have to pay for COVID-19 vaccinations, as they will be covered by their health insurance. The federal Vaccines for Children program will provide vaccinations to youngsters at no cost.

A vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, is now available for those age 60 and up. Babies and young children are also eligible to get monoclonal antibodies that can help keep them from falling seriously ill should they get infected.

Between 6,000 and 10,000 older adults die from RSV in a typical year. Among children under 5, the annual death toll usually ranges from 100 to 300.
Parents should talk to their pediatricians about monoclonal antibodies, which can reduce infants’ risk of RSV-related hospitalization and healthcare visits by 80%.

The CDC has recommended a dose of the monoclonal antibodies for infants younger than 8 months who are either born during or entering their first RSV season, which stretches from autumn through the spring.

For children between the ages of 8 and 19 months who are at increased risk of severe RSV disease, such as those who are immunocompromised, the CDC suggests a dose in their second RSV season.

Regarding the RSV vaccine for older people, you can get it at the same time as COVID-19 and the flu shots, according to the California Department of Public Health — though some health experts suggest spacing it out a bit.

For people eligible and wanting to get all three vaccines this season, Bronstein said the highest priority would be to get the flu and COVID-19 shots in one visit, and the RSV vaccine later. The RSV vaccine will be available through healthcare providers and pharmacies.

The CDC stopped short of recommending the RSV vaccine for all older adults, instead saying they “may receive a single dose of RSV vaccine using shared clinical-decision making. This means that healthcare providers and their patients should have a conversation to determine if RSV vaccination will be beneficial.”

Those at highest risk for severe RSV disease, and thus most likely to benefit from a vaccine, include people who are moderately or severely immunocompromised or have chronic medical conditions such as diabetes, neurological conditions, heart and lung problems, and disorders of the kidneys, liver or blood. People who live in nursing homes or are otherwise frail are also at higher risk. The risk of severe RSV disease increases with advancing age, the CDC said.

Long COVID risk falls with vaccination, data show- Avoiding lingering symptoms is one reason health experts recommend the shots. By Rong-Gong Lin II

Long COVID remains common after coronavirus infection, even as cases of the syndrome have decreased since the start of the pandemic, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

However, data increasingly suggest that getting vaccinated reduces the risk of long COVID among children and adults — a factor health officials have cited as part of the rationale behind recommending virtually all Americans get a newly formulated vaccine this year.

Long COVID refers to a wide range of physical and mental health problems that persist four or more weeks after a coronavirus infection. While research has hinted at a possible correlation between the severity of initial infection and likelihood of developing long COVID, the syndrome can afflict even those who had only mild symptoms — or none at all.

According to data from the 2022 federal National Health Interview Survey, 9% of U.S. adults age 35 to 49 reported having long COVID-19 at some point, with 4.7% saying they currently had long COVID at the time they were surveyed, Saydah said. That age range was the most affected by long COVID.

Among those age 50 to 64, 7.4% reported ever having long COVID, while 3.8% said they currently had the syndrome. For those age 65 and older, 4.2% said they had long COVID at some point, while 2.3% said they currently had it.

Among the youngest adults, up to age 34, 6.8% described ever having long COVID, while 2.7% said they currently had it.

The prevalence of long COVID decreased from June 2022 to January 2023 but remained steady through the first half of this year, according to survey data.

From the New York Times: Thousands of members of the United Automobile Workers union went on strike Friday at three plants in three Midwestern states in what was the first strike simultaneously affecting all three Detroit automakers.

The union and the companies — General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis, the parent of Chrysler — remained deadlocked in negotiations over a new collective bargaining agreement when the current contract expired at 11:59 p.m. on Thursday.

As the deadline neared, workers started to fan out at the targeted plants — in Michigan, Missouri and Ohio — to protest.

At the outset, the strike will idle one plant owned by each automaker, and could force the automakers to halt production at other locations, shaking local economies in factory towns across the Midwest.

From the New York Times: A recession seems remote, but market jitters persist-For the third time in three months, economists at Goldman Sachs have lowered the odds of a recession and now put the risk of a downturn in the United States at 15 percent. Yet despite the upbeat outlook, which follows other votes of confidence from Wall Street in recent weeks, global stocks and U.S. futures are in the red this morning as inflation fears persist.

The strong labor market is propping up U.S. households. “Real disposable income looks set to reaccelerate in 2024 on the back of continued solid job growth and rising real wages,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, wrote in a client note yesterday. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that wage gains had cooled in August, but real wages, adjusted for inflation, are trending higher.

Goldman is far more bullish than others. In March, the bank raised its recession odds to 35 percent in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and worries that contagion could hurt other lenders. But fears of a bank-led downturn have all but disappeared. Still, a Bloomberg survey of economists puts the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 60 percent.

Voters aren’t feeling so confident either. Poll numbers released yesterday by The Wall Street Journal showed that President Biden’s popularity is still sagging, partly because of his track record on the economy. (Voters also say he’s too old to run for re-election.) It’s the latest indication that the White House’s summer P.R. offensive, playing up the gains reaped from Bidenomics, is not resonating with Americans.

Unemployment: from the California Chamber of Commerce: Despite signs of strength in California’s economy, unemployment has ticked up, including a surprising drop in employment among men and new patterns across age groups. This uptick may be due to the Fed’s actions to slow the economy to temper ongoing inflation, which often coincides with a rise in unemployment and with recession. While recession does not seem imminent, the rise in unemployment might signal areas of concern for the state’s economy, and challenges for those impacted.

California’s unemployment rate is the third highest in the nation: as of July, 4.6% of California’s labor force is unemployed—or about 885,000 residents. That rate reflects a steady climb over the past year and brings California above the US rate (3.5%). While it is typical for the California rate to be higher than the US rate—historically driven by the state’s younger and faster growing workforce—the unemployment picture remains substantially better than at almost any point in the past 40 years. Aside from the recent low in 2022 and in the two years before the pandemic, unemployment has not been as low as it is today since 1976.